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ELUCENIA / Scientific glossary

Predictive biomarker

A characteristic identifying variation in response to an exposure or intervention in a defined context.

Editorial update · October 6, 2026

A question about differential effects

The relevant question is whether the effect of an intervention relative to an alternative differs according to the marker. Observing a single treated group is generally insufficient. The effect may involve benefit or an unwanted outcome.

How the comparison was planned

Check the assay, threshold, measurement time and analysis plan. Interpret interaction analyses with their uncertainty. An exploratory finding generates a hypothesis and should not be presented as a confirmed predictive effect.

Evidence has a scope

A marker may be useful for one treatment, disease or treatment line without being useful for another. Molecular findings require interpretation of the test and its supporting evidence; they do not guarantee a particular response for an individual.

Interpretation limits

Predictive evidence cannot automatically be transferred between drugs or populations.

Original references

  1. Understanding Prognostic versus Predictive Biomarkers
  2. Biomarker Testing for Cancer Treatment

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Educational content for framing research. Consult the original document, study population and methodology before interpreting a conclusion. Methodology

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