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Positive predictive value

The proportion of people with the condition among those testing positive, using the defined reference.

Editorial update · October 6, 2026

The correct denominator

The calculation starts with positive results: true positives divided by all positives. It answers a question about a positive result in that population, whereas sensitivity starts with people who have the condition.

Why it changes across settings

Condition frequency in the assessed population influences predictive value. The same sensitivity and specificity can therefore accompany different predictive values in different populations. Participant selection and result verification also matter.

Applying a table

When using a 2×2 tool, identify the condition, reference standard and origin of the counts. Communicate population and uncertainty. A study estimate must not be presented as a certain individual probability.

Interpretation limits

Positive predictive value is not a fixed test property across all populations.

Original references

  1. Positive predictive value
  2. Cancer Screening Overview (PDQ®), Health Professional Version

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