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Confidence interval

A range produced by a statistical procedure to describe uncertainty under specified assumptions.

Editorial update · October 6, 2026

What 95% describes

In the frequentist interpretation, a 95% confidence procedure covers the parameter in 95% of repeated applications when its assumptions hold. It does not assign a 95% posterior probability to the parameter lying within a particular calculated interval.

Precision and its limits

Interval width depends on the data and method. A wide interval may be compatible with substantially different effects. More observations can improve precision without correcting measurement problems, selection bias or confounding.

Interpret the magnitude

Read the estimate and limits in relation to effects that matter for the question. Interpretation should not be reduced to whether the interval includes a null value. Practical importance also depends on context.

Interpretation limits

A confidence interval does not capture every source of bias or uncertainty.

Original references

  1. Confidence Limits for the Mean

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